With the growth in the number of plants being built and the increasing cost competitiveness, 2011 looks like solar energy could start to come into its own in the U.S.
Even with the entrance of a Republican-controlled Congress, some see a reasonably bright future for solar in the U.S., as many of the subsidies are "baked in" to existing programs, many of which are at the state level, says Joel Silver man of Arete Research Services. State-level programs are less vulnerable to changes in Congress.
The big swing factor, he says, isn't going to be direct subsidies to the industry as much as the growth rates of installations. In Germany, he says, the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity was far more than anyone expected - and more than policymakers really wanted. "There could be a crippling oversupply there," he said.
But even with the dangers of a small-scale asset bubble, there are a number of companies that have shown they can do well. He cites that First Solar as one that built a business model that kept costs down, as it sells to solar project developers. Now if we will not work on this lines then the day may come when this world will again go into the stone age.
In its earnings forecast, the company said it expects 2011 sales ranging from $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion and earnings of $8.75 to $9.50 a share. First Solar also agreed to sell a 290-megawatt solar farm it plans to build in Arizona to NRG Energy Inc.